Nice clip from Marcus du Satoy about probabilities in real life. The section about the infant death case (around 10:30) is interesting, if distressing. I particularly enjoyed his debunking of the ‘books in house’ and ‘academic achievement’ link, although a bit more on it would have been good (especially as children can easily take correlation to mean causation, and also tend to consider small samples to mean ‘all people’ (my sister cries if I thump her -> girls cry easily)).
I love working out the probabilities of different things to guide my decisions, or attaching weights to different considerations when deciding what to buy (e.g. grocery shopping – having different weights for ‘free range’ (sort of care), ‘price’ (care a lot), ‘taste’ (care quite a bit), ‘reliability’ (“The label says ‘value’ but it could be good. It also could make me want to cry. Hmmm.”), ‘likelihood I’ll actually use this before it goes off…’ (depends on how exciting it would be if it did get used)).
I’m not sure if finding pleasure in this is just an oddity, an acquired PPEism, or if it actually could be extended to make an interesting lesson. I’ll update y’all if I do attempt it.